中文摘要：

研究先进出行者信息系统（ATIS）环境下道路网络系统流量的随机动态变化,有利于实现ATIS在网络系统中的进一步优化配置.在出行者经验积累过程基础上,引入ATIS作用下的认知更新过程,将路网系统的路径流量明确视为随机变量,提出了一个基于认知更新的随机动态分配模型.证明了该模型产生的路径流量渐近收敛于一个平稳概率分布.在算例网络中验证了模型的可行性,模拟有ATIS和无ATIS两种情形下路径流量的随机动态变化.结果表明,两种情形路径流量均收敛于平稳概率分布.前者的平均流量近似于随机用户平衡（SUE）,而后者的平均流量不是平衡流量,但其网络总费用要低于前者.

英文摘要：

Traffic network systems endogenously display both stochasticities and dynamics with vehicle flows formed from aggregated travelers in response to their previous experiences and the information provided by Advanced Traveler Information Systems （ATIS）. In consideration of the day- to- day trip- making decisions of travelers, a perception-updating-based stochastic dynamic assignment model is proposed to describe the evolution of the traffic network flow pattern. In this model, the route flows are treated explicitly as random variables and the distribution of them is proved to asymptotically converge to a stationary probability distribution. A simulation algorithm is developed for implementing the model. Numerical results under two scenarios, with and without ATIS, are also provided for comparing the stochastic dynamics of route flows.