中文摘要：

为提高突发事件演化推理的可达性与准确性，将知识元作为突发事件情景、案例与规则表示的共性基础，诠释突发事件情景演化的共性特征。结合规则推理与案例推理，构建出基于知识元的突发事件情景演化混合推理模型，详述其执行过程与方法。最后，以汶川县红椿沟泥石流的演化推理过程为例，阐述模型的实际应用过程，并将模型推理值与泥石流实测值进行对比分析，从而验证了模型的有效性与科学性。

英文摘要：

In order to improve the reachability and accuracy of emergency evolutionaryreasoning, knowledge element as the common basis for describing emergency scenarios, cases and rulesis introduced to depict the common features of the evolution of emergency scenarios. Combining the rule-based reasoning with the case-based reasoning, it buildsthe hybrid reasoning model of emergency scenario evolution based on knowledge element, then elaborates its implementation process and methods. Finally, the practical application process ofthemodel is illustrated by the example of the evolutionary reasoning process of Hongchun gully debris flow in Wenchuan County, and the obtained reasoning values are compared with the measured values of this debris flow, verifying the effectiveness and scientificity of the model.