中文摘要：

基于大量高速公路路网交通阻断事件,归纳总结造成道路交通阻断的各项成因.将数据挖掘中的聚类算法引入风险管理的风险矩阵法,提出一种路网交通阻断成因风险指数评价方法.该方法研究各项不确定因素在区域路网发生不同变动幅度的概率分布及其对道路通行能力的影响,对引起道路交通阻断成因的风险性作出评价,为路网交通阻断预防和管理提供辅助支持.对华北某区域路网交通阻断因素的评价显示,其结果与管理人员的经验值一致.

英文摘要：

Based on a large number of highway traffic block cases,this paper summarized the cause of road traffic block.In order to evaluate the risk of various factors,a risk index evaluation method for highway traffic block causes was proposed,which introduced the K-means clustering algorithm into risk matrix method.This method evaluated the risk of each factor through the risk index based on the probability distribution of the uncertain factors and its influence on the traffic capacity.This method was applied to a regional highway network of the north China,and the result is consistent with management experience.