中文摘要：

结合中国CO2排放的现状,运用改善的因素分解方法,就中国CO2排放变动的影响因素进行定性与定量的分析,研究结果认为：经济增长是促进能耗增长与CO2排放逐年增长的主导因素,而且这一作用还呈逐年增长的发展趋势;能源结构调整并未起到节能减排的作用,以煤为主的能源结构是导致CO2排放快速增长的原因之一;技术进步与产业结构调整是实现节能减排目标的主要因素。其中,能源技术进步减排效应最大。2020年减排目标的实现,关键在于推动节能技术进步,淘汰落后产能,推动重点领域节能减排;重点是控制煤炭消费的快速增长,以及能源结构与产业结构的双重优化。

英文摘要：

This paper discusses the factors influencing energy consumption and CO2 emissions based on the improved factor decomposition method and has arrived at some conclusions that economic growth is the main factor of energy demand increase and CO2 emission change,which shows increasing trend year by year.Energy structural adjustment has not achieved the desired effect of energy conservation and emission reduction and the adjustment dominated by coal resource is one of the reasons for causing the rapid growth of CO2 emissions;technical progress and industrial structural adjustment played major roles in carbon emission energy conservation,and the technical progress in energy has the greatest effect in reducing emission.The key to emission reduction lies in technical innovation,elimination of backward production capacity and focus on the control of the rapid growth in coal consumption and optimization of the energy structure and industrial structure.