中文摘要：

人口是可持续发展的关键，适度的人口规模是经济、社会、资源和环境协调发展的强力保障。文章利用GM（1，1）模型及logistic增长模型对新疆来来人口总量做出预测并在此基础上对新疆未来人均土地资源，水资源、矿产资源、粮食占有量进行测算，预测结果表明未来新疆人口继续呈快速增长的趋势，粮食资源、水资源、矿产资源、土地资源能够满足新疆未来人口发展的基本需要，人口对资源环境的压力不是特别大，但人口发展与自然资源结构性短缺之间的矛盾开始凸显。最后结合上述分析提出新疆可持续发展的对策建议。

英文摘要：

Population issue is key issue of sustainable development. Measurable population scale also guarantee of harmony development. This research paper makes the prediction of the population development during 2007--2022 of Xinjiang, by using Logistic increase model and grey system model. The sustainable development of the population and water, farmland,mineral, energy analyzed on the foundation of prediction and put forward some countermeasure.