运用系统科学和可持续发展理论,结合喀斯特发育典型的贵阳市区域特征,构建评价指标体系及水资源与社会经济发展耦合模型,运用模糊集对模型计算水资源系统和社会经济系统综合指数。结果表明:2002-2010年贵阳市水资源系统综合发展程度相对较低,与社会经济系统发展水平差距较大,水资源与社会经济发展耦合度分别为0.5、0.49、0.42、0.46、0.42、0.34、0.41、0.48,整体处于颉颃阶段。今后应对城市河段和部分工矿企业比较发达的区域实行高污染企业转移或疏散,降低高耗水、高污染排放产业比重,提高水资源利用效率;提高市民节水意识,推广节水型小区建设;加大对石漠化治理力度,提高植被覆盖率,提高生态蓄水能力;加大水利工程、集雨工程建设力度,提高客水资源利用率,调整国民经济布局,使之与水资源时空分布相匹配等,以提高水资源与社会经济发展的协调能力,促进整个贵阳市的可持续发展。
In light of sustainable development and the systematic science theory, the evaluation index system and water resources and social-economic development coupling model is constructed, and the comprehensive indexes of water resources system and social economic system is calculated by means of fuzzy set pair analysis on the basis of regional characteristics in the research area where karst develops typically. The result shows that water resources and social-economic development in Guiyang develops different and is still at the stage of antagonism, and that the coupling degree between them is 0.5, 0. 49, 0. 42, 0.46, 0.42, 0. 34, 0. 41 and 0.48 respectively from 2002 to 2010. It is urgent to do the following items of works, transfer high pollution industries that along the city river or in the industrial developed regions; reduce the proportion of high water consumption and high pollution emissions enterprises; enhance using efficiency of water resources; improve citizen water saving consciousness and extend water saving districts construction; increase the intensity of karst rocky desertification control; improve vegetation cover and raise ecology water storage capacity; strengthen the construction of hydraulic engineering and rain collection; adjust national economic layout, making it match the space-time distribution of water resources; improve the coordination ability of water re- sources and social economy; and promote the sustainable development of Guiyang.