中文摘要：

以向量自回归（VAR）模型为基础,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、方差分解和脉冲响应分析等技术,综合考察了技术创新、生产性服务业、产业集群、制造业规模等因素对江苏制造业价值链攀升的影响。研究发现：制造业价值链、技术创新、生产性服务业三者之间存在长期均衡关系,且生产性服务业是制造业价值链的Granger原因,制造业价值链是技术创新的Granger原因,但技术创新不是制造业价值链的Granger原因;脉冲响应和方差分解表明,各因素对制造业价值链攀升的影响顺序依次是生产性服务业、技术创新、产业集群指数和制造业规模,它们对制造业价值链总方差的贡献分别为28.1%、20.5%、6.3%和2.6%,说明四者对制造业价值链攀升具有重大影响,但生产性服务业影响更大。据此,提出了加快发展生产性服务业、加大技术创新力度、加速产业集群升级、壮大企业规模等政策建议。

英文摘要：

This article takes the vector auto-regressive （ VAR ） model as a basis , and uses the cointegration test , granger causality test , variance decomposition and impulse response analysis technology to inspect the influence of technology innovation , producer services industry , industry cluster and manufacturing industry scale factors on the value chain of Jiangsu manufacturing industry upgrade comprehensively.Research finds that value chain of manufacturing industry , technology innovation and producer services industry have a long term equilibrium relationship , and producer services industry is the Granger reason of value chain of manufacturing industry , value chain of manufacturing industry is the Granger reason of technology innovation , but technological innovation is not the Granger reason of the value chain of manufacturing industry ; Pulse and variance decomposition show that the order that each factor influences value chain of manufacturing industry is production services , technology innovation , industry cluster index and manufacturing industry scale , their contribution respective to the total variance of value chain of manufacturing industry are 28.1% , 20.5% , 6.3%and 2.6% , which explains that the four factors have important influence on value chain of manufacturing industry upgrade , but the influence of producer services is more bigger.Accordingly , this article puts forward to some policy suggestions of speeding up the development of production services , increasing the technical innovation , accelerating industrial cluster upgrade and expanding scale of enterprise.