为识别体系(SoS)中的薄弱环节、评价威胁风险并提高体系安全性,根据安全系统工程和体系工程理论,提出体系安全性基本概念。基于复杂网络科学和传统安全分析技术,提出一种双层次分析框架,从脆弱性角度和威胁风险角度研究体系安全性。脆弱性分析可从拓扑结构和非拓扑因素2方面识别对体系安全较关键的脆弱点;威胁风险分析能得到脆弱点面临的任意威胁组合,并识别后果较严重的威胁风险。结果表明:体系安全性包括宏观的脆弱性应对能力,和微观的威胁风险控制能力。体系安全性分析需宏观和微观双层次相结合,全面考虑体系安全性诸因素。基于识别结果的威胁评价将提高安全分析的针对性和效率。
In order to identify vulnerable components in an SoS, assess the risk of hazards to them, and improve the SoS safety, according to safety system engineering and SoS engineering theories, a concept of SoS safety was defined. Based on complex network science and traditional safety analysis technologies, a double-layered framework for SoS safety analysis was established, which studies SoS safety issues from both vulnerability and risk points. The vulnerability analysis coveting both topological and non-topological fac- tors can identify those key vulnerabilities across-the-board. The hazard risk analysis can study the impacts of any assembled hazards, and identify those hazards which will result in severe consequences. The results show that SoS safety involves SoS capabilities of resolving the vulnerabilities and controlling the risks. SoS safety analysis requires integrating both macroscopical level analysis and microcosmic level analysis, and covering the SoS safety factors roundly. Risk analysis based on identification results will improve the perti- nence and efficiency of SoS safety analysis.