中文摘要：

在轨运行航天设备的寿命预测是保证航天器安全可靠运行的核心技术之一.现有文献中已报道了多种航天器设备的寿命预测方法,但缺乏对现有方法的预测性能、适用性等方面的综合评价.从方法原理、方法实现和方法验证3个角度出发,构建了一个在轨航天设备寿命预测方法的评价系统.在层次分析法的基础上,应用三角模糊数理论确定指标权重,使得评价过程更合理、评价结果更准确.以卫星动量轮的寿命预测方法为例,对所提评价系统进行了有效性验证.

英文摘要：

Lifetime prediction is one of the core technologies for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of in-orbit spacecraft equipment.A lot of lifetime prediction methods have been reported in existing literatures,but no comprehensive evaluation method is available to assess their prediction performances and applicability.In this paper,an evaluation method was developed for those lifetime prediction methods of in-orbit spacecraft equipment interms of methods＇ principle,implementation and verification.Triangular fuzzy number was introduced in the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）to determine the weight of each index,which led to more reasonable and precise evaluation results.The effectiveness of the proposed evaluation method was finally demonstrated through an example of the satellite momentum wheel＇s lifetime prediction.