中文摘要：

文章基于当前国际社会的压力和我国政府已经做出的承诺,本着＂高歌稳进＂的思想,以长三角地区为例,实证分析了1995-2009年碳排放的区域特征,并采用情景模拟的方式研究了2050年前区域低碳经济的发展目标,通过影响因素分析和灰色关联度测算,提出了实现低碳目标的主要路径和具体方案。研究表明,我国长三角地区的碳排放总量逐年攀升,工业比重和煤类能源消费比重过大,碳排放强度较低的优势正在逐步削弱。今后40年,长三角地区的减排压力较大,其碳排放强度下降的＂五年目标＂应相对平稳,大体可以在17%-19%之间进行选择。而要实现这一目标,短期内主要应加大产业结构调整的力度。从长三角现有工业结构看,积极鼓励文教体育用品制造业、工艺品等行业的发展,同时适度限制造纸及纸制品业、石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业、塑料制品业等行业的规模,将有利于实现区域低碳经济目标。

英文摘要：

On the basis of the pressure from the international society and Chinese government＇s commitments,this paper takes the Yangtze delta region as an example and empirically studies the regional characteristics of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2009.It employs the method of scenario simulation to study regional low-carbon economic development goal before 2050 and puts forward the routes to low-carbon economy through factor analysis and grey correlation estimation.The results indicate that the overall carbon emissions in the Yangtze delta region are increasing yearly;industry percentage and coal consumption percentage are too huge;the advantage of comparatively low density of carbon emissions in the Yangtze delta region is constantly weakening.In the next 40 years,the Yangtze delta region will encounter the great pressure on the reduction in carbon emissions and its five-year goals for reducing carbon emissions should be stable,varying from 17% to 19%.In the short run,the Yangtze delta region should expend huge efforts in adjusting industrial structure.As for the existing industrial structure in the Yangtze delta region,it should actively encourage firms to invest in culture,education,sports goods and crafts,and moderately restrict the sizes of paper-making and paper products,oil processing,coking,nuclear fuel processing,plastic products manufacturing industries in order to realize the regional low-carbon economic goal.