中文摘要：

笔者基于2000年1月～2013年6月的数据，运用多元逐步回归方法识别出我国农产品价格波动的显著影响因素，然后用通径分析方法研究了国际农产品价格、通货膨胀等因素对我国农产品价格的直接影响和间接影响。结果表明，货币供应量和通货膨胀是影响国内农产品价格波动的主导因子，它们不仅直接影响大，且其他因素也主要是通过它们来间接影响农产品价格；国际农产品价格和农业生产成本的影响次之；国际石油价格的直接作用很小，但它通过通货膨胀和农业生产成本的间接影响很大；城镇居民收入的影响不明显。

英文摘要：

To study the significant factors for price volatility of agricultural products and their direct impact and indirect impact, the pa- per identifies significant factors influencing price volatility of agricultural products by multivariate stepwise regression method based on the data from January 2000 to June 2013. Then the path analysis method is used to study direct and indirect effect of international com- modity prices, inflation and other factors on agricultural prices. The results show that the money and inflation are the dominant factors with the biggest direct effect. Other factors affect the price mainly through these two factors. The influence of international commodity prices and the cost of agricultural production ranks the second. Direct effect of international oil price is small while its indirect impact is very big through inflation and the cost of agricultural production. The influence of urban residents＇ income is not obvious.