中文摘要：

通过成分分解方法探讨21世纪以来国内农产品价格波动的趋势性、周期性和随机性并构建解释结构模型,分解出影响因素间的层次结构.结果表明：国内农产品价格总体呈上涨趋势,21世纪以来国内农产品价格波动经历了4个周期,呈现出从相对平稳到小幅度波动、最后到急剧波动的变化轨迹,价格波动的随机性也越来越强.农产品供求关系、货币供应量等是表层、趋势周期性因素;生物质能源等因素是中层、趋势性因素;自然灾害等因素是根源、随机因素.

英文摘要：

Analyzing the trend, periodicity and randomness of price fluctuation for domestic agricultural products in the 21 st century by component decomposition method, it then decomposes the hierarchy between the factors based on the interpreta- tive structural model. The results show that price shows an upward trend. Since the 21st century price volatility has experi- enced four periods, from relatively stable to small fluctuations, finally to the volatility and randomness is becoming stronger and stronger. Supply and demand of agricultural products, money supply is superficial, trend and periodic factors. Biomass energy and other factors are mid-level trend factors and natural disasters and other factors are deep roots.