中文摘要：

金融安全预警系统能否有效运行的关键问题之一是要对金融自由化程度进行科学判断。为此，梳理了金融自由化理论，提出两个研究假设，设计了判断金融自由化进程的因素模型，并采用层次分析法对每一因素赋权重值，之后利用修正后的法规描述指标法对中国金融自由化各构成要素进行了分析，对中国1994-2006年的金融自由化进程进行了动态判断。研究结论认为，由于中国金融自由化改革采取的是渐进式战略，节奏控制适当，从而能够保持金融业的平稳运行。但要注意的是，伴随着金融自由化进程的不断加快，中国金融体系的脆弱性正在加大，建立金融安全预警体系十分必要。

英文摘要：

One of the key problems of whether the financial safety warning system is able to operate is to make scientific judgment of the degree of financial liberalization. For this purpose, the paper has clarified the theory of financial liberalization, proposed two research hypotheses, designed the factor model to judge the course of the financial liberalization degree and given weighting value to each factor by adopting the layer analysis method. After that it has made an analysis on the constituent factors of the Chinese financial liberalization by using the modified law description index approach to conduct a dynamic judgment of the financial liberalization course from 1994 to 2006. The research conclusion shows that because a gradual strategy is adopted for the Chinese financial liberalization reform and the rhythm control is adequate, it is able to make the financial industry operate smoothly. But it is necessary to notice that together with the incessant speeding up of the financial liberalization course, the fragility of Chinese financial system is increasing so that it is ira- perative to set up the financial safety warning system.