构建分位数回归模型,依据澳大利亚、中国大陆、日本等八个亚太股票市场2000年1月4日至2017年4月7日数据,考量国际原油市场与股票市场的联动关系。结果显示:原油市场与亚太股票市场呈正向联动关系,在极端股市条件下两个市场的联动性更为明显。原油市场与股票市场的联动性在结构突变处发生阶段性变化,两个市场的波动具有明显的传导作用。鉴此,投资者需注重防范市场间的风险传染,政府部门宜加强金融监管,维护国家能源安全。
This paper applied quantile regression approach to analyzing the co-movement be- tween international crude oil market and eight Asian-pacific stock markets including Australia, China,Japan and so on during the period from January 4,2000 to April 7,2017.The results reveal that the co-movement between crude oil market and stock markets is significantly positive, and this relationship enhanced especially in bearish and bullish markets with the lowest and highest expected returns.Additionally, the co-movement also changes since the onset of structural breaks, while volatility between these two markets has significant conduction. Hence, investors need to pay more attention to prevent inter-market risk contagion, the government should strengthen fi- nancial supervision,and maintain national energy security.