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热带印度洋偶极子与中国夏季年际气候异常关系的年代际变化
  • 期刊名称:气象学报,67(4),549-560,2009
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
  • 作者机构:[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029, [2]国家气候中心气候应用与服务室,北京100081, [3]南京大学灾害性天气气候研究所,南京210093, [4]解放军理工大学气象学院,南京211101
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金(40523001, 40730953,40425009,40405010)、中国气象局行业专项(GYHY200706010,GYHY200706005)、中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG国家重点实验室开放课题
  • 相关项目:20世纪70年代末我国东部旱涝年代际转型的成因研究
中文摘要:

利用中国站点观测月平均降水和气温资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,揭示了热带印度洋偶极子(IOD)与中国夏季气候异常关系的年代际变化。结果表明:IOD与中国夏季年际气候异常的关系既有稳定的一面,又存在着年代际变化。较为稳定的关系表现为:IOD与同年夏季长江黄河之间的降水变化存在显著负相关,与四川气温变化存在显著正相关;IOD与次年夏季四川降水存在显著正相关。伴随发生在20世纪70年代末的大尺度环流年代际转型,IOD与中国气候年际异常的联系亦发生变化:IOD正位相年的同年夏季降水异常型,由中国大部分地区偏少变为长江以南(北)偏多(少),气温由西南地区东部偏暖变为长江以南(北)偏冷(暖);次年夏季降水由全国大部分地区偏多变为长江以南(北)偏少(多),气温由全国大部分地区相关不显著变为黄河以南大部分地区显著偏暖。在IOD负位相年,中国夏季气候异常的特征与IOD正位相年相反。在20世纪70年代末的大尺度年代际气候转型前后,与IOD相关联的东亚大气环流异常特征明显不同。在IOD发展阶段,在70年代末以前,印度夏季风和南海季风偏强,副高势力偏弱,导致中国华南大部分地区降水偏少,华北西部以及内蒙古中部等地降水偏多;70年代末以后,东亚大陆中纬度为弱的东风距平,导致新疆北部降水偏少,气温偏高,华南降水偏多。在IOD次年夏季,70年代末以前,华南、河套以及四川等地盛行偏南气流,降水偏多;70年代末以后,南亚高压和西太平洋副高偏西偏强,华南、江南降水偏少。

英文摘要:

Interdecadal changes of the relationship between tropical Indian Ocean dipole(IOD) and the interannual variability of summer climate in China are investigated by using the technique of sliding correlation analysis with the monthly tropical Pacific SSTA and the monthly surface air temperature and precipitation of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the station-observed data in China during 1957-2005. The results indicate that the relation between IOP and summer climate anomaly in China on one hand showed a stable robust aspect, and on the other hand interdecadal changes. The stable relation manifested mainly in the significant negative correlation between IOD and summer precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River valley, the distinctive positive correlation between IOP and summer air temperature in Sichuan, and the remarkable positive correlation between IOD and next summer precipitation in Sichuan. Accompanied with the interdecadal shift of the large-scale general circulation pattern in the late 1970s, the association of IOD and interannual variability of summer climate in other regions in China also changed. From the pre-shift to the post-shift epoch, during the development phase of positive IOD, the summer precipitation anomaly pattern in China changed from below normal in most of China to above (below) normal in areas south (north) of Changjiang River, and the summer surface air temperature anomaly pattern changed from warming in the east of Southwest China to cooling (warming) in areas south (north) of Changjiang River; and in the next summer of positive IOD, the precipitation anomaly pattern in China changed from above normal in most of China to below (above) normal in areas south (north) of Changjiang River, and the temperature anomaly pattern from no significant correlation in most of China to significant warming in most areas south of Huanghe River. Based on the composite analysis of the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis dataset, significant different IOD-related atmospheric circulation anom

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