中文摘要：

输电线路动态增容系统作为智能输电线路技术支撑系统的重要部分,能提高输电设备的利用效率,帮助运行人员更好地掌握当前线路的运行状态。为确保输电线路增容运行的可靠性和安全性,文中研究提出基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法对输电线路增容运行后的风险进行评估的方法。该方法主要利用各微气候监测参数后验分布的随机序列来建立风向、风速和环境温度等气候概率分布模型,结合线路负荷电流模型利用蒙特卡洛模拟来预测导线的温度分布,从而给出线路增容运行的风险指标。基于夏冬2季的典型监测数据,利用所提出的方法对动态增容系统给出的热容量的可靠性进行分析,结果表明线路运行风险控制在合适的范围以内,满足电网运行和调度工程的要求。

英文摘要：

As an important part of the smart transmission line,dynamic line rating can improve the utilization of transmission equipment and help the operator to know about the current operation status of transmission line.In order to ensure the reliability and safety of the transmission line,a method based on Markov chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） is proposed to assess the operation risk of transmission line using dynamic line rating technology.The main principle of this method can be stated as follows.First,the random sequence of micro-climate monitoring parameters posterior distribution is used to create the wind direction,wind speed and ambient temperature probability distribution model.Secondly,Monte Carlo（MC） simulation is used to predict the distribution of conductor temperature with climate models and the line load current model.Finally,the operation risk indices of transmission line are calculated using the conductor temperature distribution.Typical summer and winter monitoring data are used to analyze the reliability of dynamic rating,the result showing that the operation risk is within the security range and meets the requirements of grid operation and dispatching engineering.