中文摘要：

系统地研究多台系统的可靠性增长模型，分析多台系统的可靠性增长模型存在异同点，对目前多台系统的可靠性增长的争议，提出一种应用逆向思维仿真验证方法。通过仿真结果分析表明，故障修正策略对多台同型系统可靠性增长模型有很大影响，目前多台同型系统的可靠性增长评估模型是有争议的。基于同步修正假设的美军用标准和国军标应用模型都过高估计了产品的可靠性，梅的近似计算方法低估了产品的可靠性，并且估计误差随着投入产品个数的增加而增加。而基于异步修正的王玉莹的应用评估方法更接近产品的实际精确可靠性评估值。

英文摘要：

Reliability growth models for multi-systems are studied, the different points of the models are analyzed. For the disagreement of multi-systems reliability growth models, the converse thought way is presented for model validation. Effects of improvement strategies on failure point process are considered. On the assumption that failure point process follows the Nonhomogeons Poisson process （NHPP） during reliability growth testing for single system/product. Random point process for failure stream of multi-systems can be obtained by using the theory of computer simulation. Through the analysis on the failure stream for multi-systems, the results show that the improvement strategy has an effect on the model, and current reliability growth model of multi-systems is improper for estimating reliability growth of multi-systems. Mean time between failures （MTBF） of product will be overestimated by applying the AMSAA-BISE（ army material systems analysis activity-Beijing Institute of Strength and Environment） model and be underestimated by using approximated estimation model of MEI WenHua. Furthermore, the errors of the reliability estimation by using current reliability growth model are in direct proportion to the number of testing systems. However, based on the asynchronized improvement, the estimation of the model which is presented by WANG YuYing, is closer the accurate results.