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中文摘要：
通过运用状态空间模型与卡尔曼滤波解法，本文实证分析了住房公积金制度对上海市住房市场价格与成交量波动的影响。文章认为公积金制度有力增强了居民住房消费能力，但同时也是助推房价泡沫化的重要因素之一。因此目前的住房公积金政策应该进行适当微调，以充分发挥其积极作用的同时抑制其不利影响，进一步完善我国住房保障体系。
英文摘要：
This paper employs state-space models and Kalman filtering solution to study the impact of housing provident fund system on the fluctuations in Shanghai＇s housing mar-ket. The empirical result shows that the housing provident fund system leads to the increase in housing consumption ability and also is an important reason for housing bubble in Shanghai. Therefore, the present housing provident fund policies should be modified slightly aiming at making full use of the positive function of housing provident fund system and restrai-ning its adverse effects in order to perfect China＇s housing security system.
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