中文摘要：

本文基于深圳市社会经济发展与房地产市场关系的微观机制,构建了3个理论命题,将适应性预期、金融加速器效应与房价波动的内在机理联系起来,旨在从金融市场、房地产市场和投资市场上房价波动的决定因素出发,构建长期均衡的协整方程。在关于传导机制的模型设计中,选择了影响住房供给和需求的主要因素作为控制变量,探讨加入市场预期以后,深圳市住房价格波动是否存在金融加速器效应。实证研究的结论表明：（1）深圳市住房市场金融加速器效应明显,住房价格与国内贷款增速显著相关;（2）深圳市房价波动存在明显的适应性预期,金融政策对房价的作用受预期影响较大;（3）深圳市房价波动呈现出＂持续性预期效应＂、＂持续性购买力效应＂和＂财富效应＂;（4）VAR模型进一步说明了存在适应期预期条件下,居民当期收入的增加,将进一步推高房价,在稳定市场房价预期,对高收入群体采取差别化税率,引导居民储蓄合理投资流动。

英文摘要：

This paper is based on three theoretical propositions,relating data to the real estate market,financial market,and investment market of Shenzhen.Using the extended financial accelerator equation and adaptive expectations,the paper designs the model of the influencing factors of housing price fluctuations in Shenzhen.The findings show that financial accelerator effect is sharp in Shenzhen house market;Shenzhen house price fluctuation is expected to have significant adaptability;The residents income has a positive correlation effect on house price,and then the savings takes negative correlation;The VAR model reflects that residents income together with adaptive expectations have higher impact on the price of real estate market in Shenzhen.