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中文摘要：
采用线性回归、主成分分析和灰色关联对1978-2005年海伦市粮食产量及其影响因素进行了分析,以确定粮食产量在时序上的波动特征以及引起波动的主要影响因素。研究发现：这种波动与主要粮食作物的产量密切相关,其中玉米产量的影响最大;从种植结构上分析,粮食产量的波动主要来自玉米和小麦的单产以及玉米和水稻种植面积的变化。单产与粮食产量始终保持很高的关联度;有效灌溉面积、实际机耕面积、化肥施用量、农村用电量和农机总动力等农业投入对粮食产量提高影响重大;耕地面积和劳动力对粮食产量具有一定的制约;自然条件与粮食产量的关联度剧烈变动。在此基础上提出平衡粮食产量波动和结构调整,提高粮食单产和科技支撑水平,加强粮食生产能力建设,切实落实粮食生产保护政策,提高农民农业生产积极性的建议。
英文摘要：
Based on the agriculture statistical data from 1978 to 2005 in Hailun County,the agricultural development process and factors are analyzed by using the linear regression,the gray system analysis and principal component analysis method.The conclusions are as following： The fluctuation of purveyance production is related with grain yield,especially the production of maize is the dominant factor.Analyzed from the viewpoint of the crop construction,the fluctuation of grain yield is related significantly with both grain yield per hectare of maize and wheat and the planting area of maize and rice.Grain yield per hectare is the most important factor in the method of the gray system analysis.There was significant correlation between effective irrigated area,the amount of fertilizer applied,mechanical power and the grain yield.The area of grain and the population of agriculture are factors that affect grain production.The correlation coefficient of natural resources and grain production changes unstably. Moreover,the countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of grain are presented,such as balancing between the fluctuation and crop construction of purveyance production,relying on scientific progress to increase grain yield per unit area,strengthening ability of agricultural production,establishing protection policy of agricultural production and improving farmers＇ enthusiasm of agricultural production.
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