中文摘要：

为评价中国省域交通碳减排压力,提供差异化的交通碳减排政策依据,基于地理加权回归模型,确定且测算了2007年和2013年中国省级区域交通行业的规模效应、技术效应、结构效应三大驱动因子,并使用熵值法确定其权重,构建并计算各省交通碳减排压力指数,结合自然断点分级法,按区域划分碳减排压力指数。结果表明：中国省域交通碳减排驱动因子和压力指数存在空间异质性,碳减排压力指数由2007年的自北向南逐渐递减转变为2013年的自东北向华中、西南递减;在政策层面上,东北地区需重点调整经济增长方式、优化运输结构,以降低交通碳减排结构效应的正向驱动,华中地区需继续稳健地发展经济,降低由于规模效应带来的交通碳排放,而西北、西南地区则需要推进科技创新和技术优化,提升技术减排效应。

英文摘要：

To evaluate carbon emission reduction pressure in China＇s provincial transport sector,and consequently provide a reference for formulating the carbon emission reduction policies for differentiated transport sections,three driving factors including the scale factor,the technical factor,and the structural factor of China＇s provincial transport sector in 2007 and 2013 were identified and calculated based on the geographical weighted regression（GWR）model.The weights for the driving factors were determined by using the entropy method and then the carbon emission reduction pressure index（CERPI）at the province-level was constructed and calculated.The natural break point method was used to classify CERPI at the regional level.The results show that the provincial CERPI and their driving factors present spatial heterogeneity.The CERPI presents a gradually decreasing trend from the north region to the south region in 2007,however,the trend gradually transforms to a decreasing one from the northeast region to thecentral and southwest regions in 2013.Therefore,at the policy level,the northeast region needs to adjust the economic growth mode and optimize the structure of transport sector,so as to mitigate the positive driving of structural effect in traffic carbon emission.The central region needs to sustain the prudent development of economy to reduce traffic emissions caused by the scale effect,while the northwest and southwest areas need to promote scientific and technological innovation and optimization to improve the technical effect in carbon emission.