中文摘要：

基于我国内陆地区温度变化的预测结果，建立了温度变化概率模型，并研究了其对钢筋混凝土碳化腐蚀电流密度的影响。利用锈蚀钢筋样本，测试了锈蚀钢筋的力学行为，统计了锈蚀钢筋面积损失率，建立了其与失效模式和强度的定量概率模型。结合我国规范弯曲和剪切承载能力模型，考虑钢筋混凝土（RC）梁退化的随机性，建立了大气环境下锈蚀RC梁时变弯曲和剪切抗力模型。利用我国建筑规范楼面梁随机荷载模型，发展了弯曲和剪切时变可靠度模型，基于首次超越概率分析方法，预测了我国内陆地区RC楼面梁的概率性能，使用Monte—Carlo模拟方法，计算了将来90a内的时变弯曲失效风险、剪切失效风险和组合失效风险。研究表明：对于高CO，浓度地区，结构弯曲失效风险、剪切失效风险和组合失效风险比低浓度地区的分别高6％，18％和7％；在只有箍筋和主筋锈蚀的情况下，弯曲失效是锈蚀RC梁的主要失效行为；保护层厚度为20mm和水灰比为0．55时的弯曲和剪切失效风险比保护层厚度为40mm和水灰比为0．45时的分别高122％和57％。

英文摘要：

Based on temperature change prediction data in inner mainland, the paper proposed a probabilistic model of temperature change and analyzed its influences on carbonation-induced corrosion. With corroded reinforcements samples, a long-term mechanical behavior of corroded steel rebars was examined and the corrosion loss rate were analyzed, and associated models for strength and failure modes and corrosion loss were developed. Based on flexural and shear strength models in Chinese code and considering the uncertainty of deterioration of reinforced concrete （RC） beam, a probabilistic flexural and shear resistance model was developed. Using stochastic load model of office floor beam provided by Chinese building code, the time-dependent structural reliability models were improved and the probabilistic performance of RC office floor beam was predicted using first-transcendental probability method. Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to calculate the time-dependent flexural failure risk, shear failure risk and combined failure risk of RC floor beam over the next 90 years. Results show that for the higher CO2 inner mainland region, the risks of flexural, shear and combined failures are respectively 6% , 18% and 7% higher than those for the lower concentration area. For RC structures subjected to stirrup and main rebars corrrosion, flexural failure dominates. For concrete durability parameters of cover = 20 mm and w/c = 0.55 the risks of flexural and shear failures are 122% and 57% higher than those predicted for cover = 40 mm and w/c = 0. 45