中文摘要：

为了使太阳电池的二极管模型更好地适用于户外自然光条件，结合实测参数，改进已有的温度模型和照度模型，给出了一种利用短路电流SC、开路电压OC、最大功率点电压mpp、最大功率点电流mpp确立模型参数、光照强度和组件温度，确定I-V输出的光伏输出预测模型。采集了屋顶光伏系统的环境参数（照度G-温度T）和电气参数（输出I-V曲线）作为实测参考。在给定光照-温度（G-T）情况下，计算现有模型和改进模型的SC、OC输出预测值，与实测参考值进行比较，发现改进模型的预测值更接近于实测值。采用Matlab-Simulink进行模拟，可以得到任意照度和温度下的I-V曲线，通过模拟曲线与真实测量曲线进行对比，发现有较好的吻合度。因此改进模型能够在给定光照和温度数据下，更准确地预测光伏组件输出。

英文摘要：

To make solar cells diode model more suitable for natural conditions, measured parameters were combined to improve the existing temperature model and il umination model. Model parameters were established by short-circuit current SC, open circuit voltage OC, maximum power point voltage mpp, maximum power point current Impp. Then a power prediction model was given. Rooftop photovoltaic system environment parameters （il umination G-temperature T） and electrical parameters （output IV curve） were measured as reference. The predicted PV Output value was compared with the measured reference value. It was found that the improved model of the predicted value was closer to the measured value in the given il umination- temperature （GT）. Matlab-Simulink simulate PV Output under any il umination and temperature,and the simulation curve could be compared with real measurement curve in good agreement. Improved model could predict the output of the PV modules under any given light and temperature data more accurately.