本文分析了在现行的地方政府控制土地出让收益模式下,城市房价波动对财政收入的影响机制。研究发现:土地出让收入、财富效应、房地产税收以及房价波动的产业关联效应构成了财政增收的四种机制。基于2000—2010年的35个大城市的面板数据,我们定量分析了房价波动对城市财政收入的影响。结果显示,房价和总产出的变动显著影响了财政收入,从而为财政收入的高速增长提供了一种基于资产价格的解释。
The paper discusses the impacts of housing price fluctuations on fiscal revenues in the background that land transfer is controlled by local government. The results show that four mechanisms, including land assignment income, wealth effect, the real estate tax and industry linkage effect, make up finance income. Based on the panel data of 35 big cities from 2000 to 2010, the authors compute the effect of fluctuations of housing price on finance income. Changes of prices and overall outputs in housing market will significantly affect financial incomes, which offer an explanation for finance income growth in view of asset price.