中文摘要：

文章以批发和零售业为例，代表流通产业，使用基本投入产出模型，实证分析了批发和零售业的产业关联效应，并在基本投入产出模型的基础上，构造了产业发展路径选择模型，用来实证研究批发和零售业产业发展路径问题。研究发现，批发和零售业的集聚性在下降，自身发展能力降低，自我调节功能下降；批发和零售业对制造业直接消耗存在下降态势，对服务业直接消耗存在上升态势，批发和零售业服务化水平正逐步提升；批发和零售业对现代制造业的直接推动力存在上升态势，对传统制造业的直接推动力存在下降态势。

英文摘要：

We study the industry relevancy of wholesale and retail based on the input-output model and the development path of wholesale and retail based on the extended input-output model. In this paper, we find out that the agglomeration, the development capability, the regulating capability, the direct demand of wholesale and retail for manufacture are all descending, while the direct demand of wholesale and retail for service is going up ; the level of service is improving; the direct supply to modem manufacture of wholesale and retail is increasing; the direct supply to traditional manufacture of wholesale and retail is descending.