中文摘要：

本文在国外最新研究成果基础上结合中国实际情况探讨了国有银行脆弱性预警系统的指标体系和基本框架。文中强调了在银行调整和开放加快、系统性风险增加的情况下，建立适合我国国情的国有银行脆弱性预警模型的紧迫性。仅靠对国有银行的监管不足以保证银行体系的安全。有效的预警系统必须对综合指标和核心指标进行全面监测。在简介西方银行脆弱性研究现状基础上，详述了其预警系统的指标体系、国际经验及其新进展．最后提出了中国国有银行脆弱性预警模型框架体系。

英文摘要：

Drawing on the latest international research efforts and combining with the actual situation in China, the paper explores index system and fundamental framework of an early-warning system for banking fragility of Chi- na＇s state-owned banks. Adapting to the national conditions, it emphasizes the urgency for the establishment of the early-warning models as China faces greater potential systemic financial risks in context of accelerating structural adjustments and liberalization in the domestic financial sector. It is not enough to guarantee the safety of banking system by counting on traditional supervision on state-owned banks. Effective early-warning system must compre- hensively monitor the integrated indicators and core indicators. The paper details the index system, international ex- perience and the latest progress of the early-warning systems on the basis of banking fragility research in the west, and finally proposes the framework of early-warning system for banking fragility of state-owned banks in China.