中文摘要：

人口老龄化不断加剧和产业结构转型升级是中国经济当前面临的两大挑战．人口老龄化会阻碍产业结构升级吗？为了回答这一问题，本文从五个方面总结了人口老龄化引起产业结构转变的理论机制，通过构建多维产业升级指标并运用中国1993-2013年的分省份面板数据进行了实证研究。结果显示，人口老龄化不仅促进了中国第一、二、三产业间结构的优化，还推动了制造业与服务业内部技术结构的优化。人口老龄化主要通过增加消费需求、加快人力资本积累和“倒逼”企业用资本和技术替代劳动来应对劳动力成本上升，促进了产业结构升级，同时也通过降低劳动生产率，对产业结构升级造成了一定的负面影响。总体而言，人口老龄化对中国产业结构升级的净效应为正。此外，本文还发现．人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应在中国各区域之间存在较大差异．中西部地区表现较强．而东部地区较弱。以上研究表明，人口老龄化与产业结构升级并不是对立的．中国应当顺应人口老龄化的趋势．在宏观经济政策上做好顶层设计．并充分利用人口老龄化对产业结构升级的诱发作用．推动产业结构高级化。

英文摘要：

China＇s increasing population aging and the upgrade of industrial structure are the two major challenges which Chinese economy is facing with. The question that whether population aging may block the upgrade of industrial structure or not is the point this paper is going to probe into. This paper summarized the theoretical mechanism of population aging causing the transformation of industrial structure from five perspectives. It also conducted an empirical study through constructing multidimensional industrial upgrading indicators and using the provincial panel data of China from 1993 to 2013. The results show that the population aging not only optimizes the structure of China＇s primary, secondary and tertiary industry, but also promotes the inner technical structure of manufacturing industry as well as service industry to a higher level. The population aging promotes the upgrade of industrial structure by enhancing consuming demands, speeding up the accumulation of human capital and forcing the enterprises to replace the human working force with capital and technology to cope with the increasing cost of labor force. The population aging also has negative effects on the upgrade of industrial structure for it leads to low productivity. The net effect of population aging on the upgrade of industrial structure is positive. Besides, this paper also find that the effects of population aging on upgrade of industrial structure vary in different regions. It can be declared that the relationship between population aging and the upgrade of industrial structure is not opposite. Therefore, Chinese government can make full use of the inducing effects of population aging on the upgrade of industrial structure to push the industrial structure to a more advanced level.