中文摘要：

利用区域承载力计算方法,建立了图们江地区区域承载力的评价指标体系,依据2000～2008年的统计资料,对图们江地区的区域承载力进行了横向和纵向分析,并建立预测模型对图们江地区的区域承载力进行动态预测。结果表明,图们江地区在2000～2008年并没有出现超载,区域承载力比吉林省和全国的平均水平低,区内8个县市的区域承载力存在较大的差距,预测认为2020年以后图们江地区将出现超载。这些结果表明图们江地区的发展存在潜在的不可持续发展的因素。

英文摘要：

Tumen River Area,an eastern triangle-border area of Jilin Province adjacent to Russia and the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea,is abundant in natural resources and has locational advantages in its development,where is an economically and politically sensitive area to China who hopes an peace development.As China＇s government has decided to develop this area as a part of strategic development for Northeast China,a sound and stable development would become especially important domestically.Based on the previous studies,this study focused on the issue of the sustainable development in this area,useing calculation method of regional carrying capacity and setting up an evaluation indicator system of regional capacity in this area.In terms of vertical and horizontal analysis according to statistical data from 2000 to 2008,a new predictive model has been set up for understanding the regional carrying capacity of this area,especially for the prediction of further dynamic variation of this area.The results showed that the regiona carryingl capacity of Tumen River Area in the period of 2000-2008 has not been overloaded,lower than the other areas of Jilin Province and the average of the whole country.Meanwhile,there are relatively large differences in regional carrying capacity within 8 cities and counties of this area,and it is predictable that the regional carrying capacity of this area would overload after 2020.This would be the important influencing factor for potential unsustainable development of this area.