中文摘要：

城市空间拓展和政府产业转型政策等外部环境对企业生存发展具有重要影响。本文利用1995—2009年间上海市24470家新成立的规模以上工业企业数据，采用COX风险比例模型和指数回归方法，研究发现，离市中心越近、区位越好的工业企业，其生存发展受到城市空间拓展后土地租金增加和劳动力分布变化的影响程度越高，生存风险越大；在没有政策偏好的情况下，多数传统行业生存状况并不存在行业上的显著差异，但政策重点挟持的产业明显生存风险越小，生存状况较好。

英文摘要：

External environment factors, such as urban spatial extension process and industrial transformation policy, play a great role in enterprises survival and development. Based on the data of 24470 industrial enterprises established during 1995 to 2009 in Shanghai, this paper uses COX proportional hazards model and exponential regression （PH） method to study the determinants of enterprises＇ survival and development. Our evidence shows that both urban spatial extension and industrial transformation policies have a significant effect on survival risk of enterprises. There is a significant negative correlation between access to city center and enterprise hazards risk, and government preference industrial policies could affect enterprise＇s survival and development significantly.