中文摘要：

系统地阐述了滩涂区海岸带预警系统的组成，对预警指标的选择、加权值的确立以及子系统的去干扰参数进行了初步研究和探讨；尝试性地建立了海岸带新型开发区的预警模式。随着江苏海洋开发和苏东战略的实施，盐城已经成为新兴工业开发地带，产业结构变化加剧。同时，环境压力日益显现。利用主成分分析法、二次曲线预测法：专家模糊预测法等方法，定量化研究了盐城海岸带环境指标及子系统和指标层的权重，并对2006～2015年的盐城海岸带环境压力进行了预警预测。研究结果表明，盐城社会环境指数逐步提高，从2003年起进入到轻警区，这主要体现在人均收入指数从1995年的0．11上升到2005年的0．789，第三产业指数有了较大的进步。生态环境污染指数则不容乐观。从1995年的0．9降到2005年的0．5左右，已进入重警的范围。盐城海岸带环境尚无重警出现，但除去个别年份在轻警范围中，其余大部分时间均处在中警区面临的环境压力依然严峻，因采取合理的开发模式控制总体开发力度，以求环境和经济和谐持续发展。

英文摘要：

Systematical constitution of coastal early-warning system in tidal area was discussed in this paper. Primary research on choosing index of early-warning and establishing power of weight and the interference parameter of sub-system was carried. With Jiangsu marine development and the implementation of the strategy for the eastern Jiangsu, Yancheng has become an emerging industrial development zones, and industrial change intensified. Meanwhile,the impact on the environment has become more striking. By using of principal component analysis, second curve forecasting method, expert fuzzy prediction method and other methods quantitative study of Yancheng Coastal Zone environmental indicators and subsystem level weights were done from 2006 to 2015,at the same time early warning and forecast of the impact on the environment of Yancheng Coastal Zone were established. It suggests that Yancheng social environment indexes increase gradually,and it has entered Light District in 2003. The per capita income index had risen from 0.11 in 1995 to 0. 789 in 2005,at that time the tertiary industry index has made significant progress. It is not optimistic that environmental pollution index dropping down from 0. 9% in 1995 to 0. 5% in 2005,and has re-entered the heavy warning area. A warning mode on trial of coastal newly development area was established and an experiment was carried in Yancheng coast. Result revealed that even no heavy warning occurred,but Yancheng was always in medium warning level,except for occasionally slight warning. The environmental pressure on Yancheng is still rigorous. So Yancheng City should take reasonable development mode and control total development strength to attain harmonious and sustainable development of environment and economy.