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中文摘要：
在总结分析国内外地震预测研究成果的基础上，提出了以“地震断层滑面剪切力大于抗剪强度是地震产生的充要条件”作为地震灾害发生的主要判据。借助汶川地震力学物理模拟实验系统，揭示了发震断层面上剪切力的演变特征，用于指导发震断层活动性实时监测与预警。基于以上各理论，成功研制了发震断层活动性远程实时监测预报系统，并对张家口发震断层进行了现场活动性模拟试验，实验结果证实了系统的有效性和可靠性。
英文摘要：
Based on the sunammary and analysis of earthquake prediction research achievements at home and broad, “shearing fome on fault slip surface exceeding the shearing resistance strength is the sufficient and necessary conditions of earthquake” is put forward as the main criteria. Helping With wenehuan earthquake mechanics physical simulation experiment system, shear force evolution characteristics on the seismogenie fault is revealed, which is used for guiding real - time monitoring and warning. Based on the above theories, causative fault activity remote real - time monitoring prediction system is successfully developed and applied in active simulation experiment of Zhangjiakou causative fault, and the experiment results prove the reliability and availability of the system.
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