基于青藏高原与气候变化相关的地表自然灾害(滑坡、泥石流、山洪、干旱、雪灾)的孕灾和成灾特点,遴选出不同类型灾害的危险性评估指标,进行灾害危险性评估;依据对承灾体的危害程度和方式,分别针对山地灾害(滑坡、泥石流、山洪)和气象灾害(干旱和雪灾)进行区域易损性评估;对危险度和易损度评估值进行归一化处理,完成灾害综合风险评估.评估结果表明:高度风险区主要位于青藏高原西部和南部边缘地区,占20.55%,包括川西高原和藏东南;中度风险区主要位于青藏高原中南部、中西部以及东北部地区,占30.26%,包括西藏南部、青海北部以及四川西北部地区;低度风险区主要位于青藏高原中部地区,占37.64%,包括西藏中北部与青海西南部地区;微度风险区主要位于青藏高原北部与西北部,占11.55%,包括西藏北部与新疆南部地区.最后,分析了当前防灾减灾存在的问题,并提出相应的减灾对策.
Base on the characteristics of surficial hazards such as landslide, debris flow, flash flood and meteorological hazards such as drought and snow calamity in Tibetan Plateau, the hazard level was assessed by means of indexes selected from different types of hazards. Vulnerability assessment at regional scale was conducted specific to each type of the hazard according to the manner and extent of damage. A comprehensive risk assessment was achieved combining the result of hazard and vulnerability assessment. The risk map shows that the high risk regions (20.55% of overall area) are mainly located in the fringe of eastern and southern plateau, while the moderate risk regions (30.26% of overall area) are in the south-central, west-central and north-east areas including southern Tibet, northern Qinghai and northwestern Sichuan. And the low risk regions (37.64% of overall area) are mainly at central plateau including north-central Tibet and southwestern Qinghai. The northern and north-western plateau; including northern Tibet and southern Xinjiang (11.55% of overall area), are subject to minor risk. At last, strategies to resolve current deficiencies in disaster mitigation and prevention have been proposed.