中文摘要：

以1976,1990,2000,2005年和2010年玛纳斯河流域的遥感影像数据为基础,利用GIS、Fragstats3.4、SPSS和灰色模型软件,以景观格局指数分析了玛纳斯河流域的景观变化特征,并结合因子分析和灰色关联度模型对驱动力进行了定量分析。结果表明：近40 a来,研究区整体景观格局表现出多样化、复杂化和破碎化,其中建工用地和耕地呈现出双向拓展并趋于集中的趋势,优势度大大提升,而其他景观类型则与之相反;景观格局的演变受到人为因素和自然因素的双重影响,且以人类活动影响为主;各景观类型因经济和城市发展对资源和空间的需求而发生不同程度的变化。为保护玛纳斯河流域的生态安全,优化景观结构,流域内人地关系需要有效地协调。

英文摘要：

With the remote sensing image data of Manas River basin in 1976,1990,2000,2005,2010 and the support of GIS,Fragstats3. 4,Spss and Grey Modeling software,the landscape change characteristics and the driving forces in the study area were analyzed quantitatively by the landscape pattern indexes and combined methods of factor analysis and gray correlation model. The results showed that in recent 40 years,the overall landscape pattern in the basin became diversified,complicated and fragmented,especially,the construction land and farmland showed a trend of concentration and bidirectional expansion,the advantages was greatly enhanced while other landscape types were in contrast; the evolution of the landscape pattern was impacted by human factors and natural factors,and mainly by human activities; the various landscapes change in different degrees due to the demand of economic and urban development for resources and space. To protect the basin ecological security,optimize the structure of the landscape,it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between people and land.