中文摘要：

2008年汶川大地震发生以来,位于青藏高原东南缘实皆断裂带和红河断裂系之间滇缅地块发生了一系列MS5.5以上中强地震,该地区未来是否可能发生MS7.0以上大地震的危险性,十分令人关注.本研究以滇缅地块内部最长的NE向走滑断裂带——南汀河断裂带为例,结合遥感图像、数字高程模型（DEM）和1∶20万地质图,对断裂带附近的水系系统拐弯地貌特征和大型地质体单元位错信息进行提取分析,并根据这些断裂带左旋走滑起始年代（5 Ma）,推算其长期走滑速率.研究结果表明研究区NE向断裂带自上新世以来,具有2mm·a-1的长期走滑速率;此外,根据发生在断裂带上及其周边地区的历史地震、大震复发周期和区内现代构造应力场的分布分析发现,沿这些NE向大型左旋走滑断裂带未来具有MS7.0以上大地震发生的危险性.

英文摘要：

The Yunnan-Burma block,located in the southeast margin of the Tibetan plateau,is one of the most tectonically active regions in mainland China.Since 1900,more than 10 earthquakes with magnitude over 7 occurred in this region,which account for more than a half of the great earthquakes in Yunnan.Moreover,the recent MS7.2earthquake occurred in Mong Hpayak onMarch 24,2011,and a series of MS5.5earthquakes in the western Yunnan.If these earthquakes are not isolated,does they mean early warning of great earthquakes in the future？Therefore,for the purpose of earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation,it is urgent and necessary to carry out seismic risk assessment in this region especially along the NE-trending fault zones.The method of tectonic geomorphology was used to analyze fault activity.By measuring the deformation of the typical geomorphic or geologic units together with dating data,fault activity was estimated.The measurement was finished indoor or in the field.Remote sensing data were interpreted and geologic maps were prepared.According to the interpretation of drainage systems based on the remote sensing data,displacement of faults were determined.In the field,the rope and scale were employed for measurement（if displacement is too long,GPS equipment was used）.Using dating technology,motion rates on the faults in the study area were estimated.The analysis of tectonic geomorphology along the Nanting fault zone,and drainages and channels across the fault zone shows systematically left-lateral offset.The largest offset occurs along the Nujiang River,and total displacement of the fault here is about 10 km.Moreover,offsets of rivers near the village Datianba range from 1.5to 5.5km and 1.8to 2.1km near Panhe Farm,respectively.Besides geomorphic units,geologic units are also displaced.Granite bodies west of the Yun County show obviously sinistral slip ranging from 4.1mto 5.6km.Based on the tectonic characteristics and deep dynamic mechanism of NE-trending tectonics within the Yunnan-Myanmar block,the followin