基于Hotelling模型,引入“资源储存”和“技术进步”等因素,建立非再生资源最优化开采模型。在假设成本和需求函数已知的情况下,研究了两种不同开采速度的矿产资源市场价格的增长率问题,并对两者的增长率进行了比较研究。理论研究和实证分析均表明,在一段较长的时期,矿产资源市场价格的增长率具有如下规律:其一,常态开采状况下的市场价格增长率在一段时期内几乎为零;其二,若矿产资源加速开采,则必然加速可耗竭资源的耗竭速度,但其价格增长率会呈逐渐降低的趋势。
A new optimization exploitation model for nonrenewable resources ,which focused on two possi-ble explanations:“stock effects”and“technological progress”,was proposed in this paper .And two kinds of growth rate were investigated under the known cost and demand .Theory study and demonstration analy-sis showed that:First, the growth rate of market price remained zero over a period of time;second, the exploitation rate will accelerate the depletion rate sharply but the rate of price growth will gradually drop .