中文摘要：

通过对城镇化率、地方财政赤字以及居民储蓄存款余额的统计数字进行观察、研究后,构建了城镇化水平、地方政府性债务和民间资本之间的盒状图模型。盒状图显示,在城镇化进程中,地方政府性债务和民间资本的作用效果存在＂此消彼长＂的分界点。到达分界点前,地方政府起主导作用,在城镇化建设中的作用效果较强;超越分界点后,地方政府的主导作用逐渐让位给民间资本,民间资本的作用效果增强。随后利用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验对模型进行了验证。最后,提出对策建议。

英文摘要：

Through the observation and study on statistics of urbanization rate, local budget deficit and savings deposits of residents, the author constructs a box - like graph model of urbanization,local government debt and private capital. The graph shows that in the process of urbanization there is a demarcation point of ＂trade - off＂ between local government debt and private capital. Before reaching the demarcation point, local governments play a leading role and its effect is stronger in the construction of urbanization. Beyond the point, private capital plays a leading role and its effect is stronger instead of local governments. Then the author uses Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality to test the model. Finally, the suggestions are out forward.