本文通过建立STR模型,实证分析了1999年第一季度至2010年第一季度我国货币供应量变动对保险需求的传导效应。结果表明:货币供应量变动对保险需求的影响具有显著的非对称性和非线性特征,即扩张性货币政策对当期保险需求的影响显著,而紧缩性货币政策对当期保险需求的影响有限。具体来讲,宽中趋紧与紧中趋紧的货币政策都将导致当期保险需求下降,但前者的影响更显著;宽中趋松与紧中趋松的货币政策都将扩大当期保险需求,但前者的作用更明显。通过选取不同滞后阶数的货币供应量变动作为转换变量,我们还发现,各期货币供应量变动对保险需求的影响具有明显的联动效应;货币供应量变动不仅影响当期保险需求,对未来6期的保险需求均有不同程度的非对称性和非线性影响,但非对称性和非线性特征会逐期减弱。
By employing the STR model, this paper empirically analyzed the transmission effect of money supply fluctuations on the demand for insurance in China during the period of 1999 first quarter to 2010 first quarter. The empirical analysis indicated that money supply fluctuations affected the demand for insurance with typically asymmetrical and non-linear characteristics. Expansionary monetary policy has a significant effect on the demand for insurance in the same period ,while the effect of contractionary monetary policy on insurance demands is limited. Specifically speaking, both the expansionary and contractionary monetary policies tending to tighten will decrease the demand for insurance, with the former effect being stronger;both expansionary and contractionary monetary policies tending to relax will increase the demand for insurance, with the former effect being more conspicuous. By using different transition variables, we found that money supply fluctuations not only affected insurance demands in the current period ,but also affected the demand for insurance in the future six periods with varying asymmetrical and non- linear characteristics. But the asymmetrical and non-linear characteristics would gradually diminish.