中文摘要：

针对需求随机变动条件下公交运营设计的综合优化问题，首先将公交运行情况抽象到三维网络中，给出公交车辆运营服务的时空网络图，由此构造基于随机期望值规划的公交时刻表设计与车辆运用综合优化模型，该模型综合考虑了公交企业的经济效益和公交乘客所得到的公交服务水平的优化，并给出公交服务频次和车辆分配协调的启发式算法.通过北京市某线路实际运营数据的计算，对公交车队规模、线路类型的安排与公交企业效益及服务的灵敏度关系进行量化分析，证明模型和算法是有效的.

英文摘要：

Considering the integrated optimization of transit operation plan with stochastic OD demands, a stochastic expected value model based on a 3-D time-space network was formulated to capture the coordination of transit service schedule and bus use plan. The objectives considered here involved in the trade-off of passengers＇ and operator＇s benefit. A heuristic solution was provided to realize the cooperation of transit service frequency and bus assignment. Experimental test with actual data from one Beijing bus line was done. Sensitive relations among the bus scale, route changing and operator＇s benefit were shown. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness of the above model and solution with stochastic demand distributions realistically represents the actual situation.