中文摘要：

在对铁路预警研究综述的基础上，进行了铁路运营监测预警系统研究。从指标内涵、地位、政策相关性、表现形式、数据可得性及指标间关系等方面，确定了铁路运营监测预警系统指标体系的设计原则。引入机车辆数指数、旅客列车坐席指数的概念，从运输量、货车和机车运用、生产能力改善、经济、服务水平5个方面，构建铁路运营监测预警指标体系。对警限和警度的确定原则、方法进行探讨，提出预警信号评价模型。结合具体案例，对铁路运营水平进行评价，将运营水平状况的判断与决策取向相融合。所研究的理论和方法为铁路运营管理提供了科学依据和有益的参考。

英文摘要：

The advance of railway early-warming is reviewed; the early-waming system of railway operation （EWSRO） is studied. From the angle of indicators meaning, importance, policy pertinence, performance modes, data accessibility and correlations in-between indicators, the design principle of index system for EWSRO is determined. The concept of locomotive index and seat index is introduced. The index system of EWSRO is built from the aspects of traffic volume, operation of rolling stocks, improvement of productive ability, economic and service level. The principle and method of warming limit and warming degree is probed into, and the early-waming signal evaluation model is provided. By case analysis, the railway operation level is evaluated; operation level judgment is integrated with effective rneasure. The result provides reliable theoretical criteria for railway operation management.