利用多变量协整检验和基于向量误差修正模型(VECM)的因果关系检验,实证分析了中国能源消费与经济增长之间的关系;结果表明,GDP资本存量,劳动力以及能源消费之间存在着长期均衡关系,且短期内存在由能源消费至GDP增长的单向因果关系,能源消费每变动1个百分点,会带来0.52个百分点的实际GDP发生同方向变动。这一结论具有重要的政策含义:通过提高能源利用效率、完善能源市场体系,能够促进中国经济实现可持续发展。由于能源保护与经济增长是紧密相连的,目的在于提高经济效率的经济改革和产业结构调整可节省能源、采取能源保护措施和提高能源利用效率,有利于促进长期可持续的经济增长。
The paper uses multivariable integration test and Granger causality test based on vector error correction model and analyzes the relationship between China's energy consumption and economic growth.The empirical finding indicates there exists long-run equilibrium among China's energy consumption,real GDP,capital stock and labor.In addition,there is an unilateral causality between China's energy consumption and real GDP in the short run.If China's energy consumption changes 1%,real GDP will change 0.25% in the same direction.This conclusion implies that if we enhance the energy utility efficiency and perfect energy market system,we can promote sustainable development of China's economy.