中文摘要：

以乌鲁木齐市2001--2012年大气环境中SO2，NO2，PM10作为对象进行环境承载力研究，采用美国橡树岭大气质量指数（0RAQI）模型、环境承载力指数模型和灰色预测GM（1，1）模型等研究方法，探讨了乌鲁木齐市大气环境承载力指数及其影响因素；建立预测模型，得到2013—2020年大气环境承栽力指数预测值．结果表明，2001—2012年乌鲁木齐市空气中主要污染物是SO2和PM10，呈现典型的煤烟型污染特征．大气环境质量Io，指数平均为91，属于“坏”的等级；大气环境承载力指数平均为16．21，处于中等承载等级．预测结果显示，环境承栽力指数呈逐年上升趋势，到2020年该指数将达到19．86，处于较高承载等级，表明未来大气环境承栽能力水平将有所提高，大气环境质量会得到进一步改善．

英文摘要：

In this paper, takes SO2, NO2, PM10 in atmospheric environment of Urumqi City as study object to research the environmental carrying capacity. The environmental carrying capacity index and its influencing factors of Urumqi are discussed by using oak ridge air quality index （ORAQI） model, environmental carrying capacity index and gray forecasting models GM（1,1）, respectively. The predictive model is proposed, and the predictive values of the atmospheric environment carrying capacity index from 2013 to 2020 are obtained based on this model. The results show that the major air pollutants are SO2 and PM10 in Urumqi City during 2001 to 2012, which is the typical characteristic of coal-burning pollution. The average atmospheric environment quality ORAQI index is 91, which means that the atmospheric environment is bad rating. The average atmospheric environment quality index is 16.21, which means that the atmospheric environment is in the middle load level. The forecast results show that the environmental carrying capacity index is rising year by year, which will reaches 19.86 in 2020 at high load rating. This indicate that the carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment will been increased, and the quality of atmospheric environment will be further improved.