中文摘要：

研究以浙江湖漫水库供水系统为例，通过模糊概率理论构建了供水系统的风险模糊函数组，估算该地区供水系统的相关风险模糊概率，并建立了供水系统风险评价指标体系，对供水系统的运行进行了风险管理分析与评价。结果表明，从不同的风险角度都可以反映出湖漫水库干旱的危害程度，且当前水库管理仍存在的其它风险隐患，为今后该地区的水资源规划及供水系统风险管理的实施奠定了基础。

英文摘要：

It takes the water system of Hu Man reservoir in Zhejiang Province as an example to estimate the related risk fuzzy probability by establishing the risk fuzzy function set of the water system based on the fuzzy probability theory and analyze and evaluate the risk of existing operation management of the water system with the risk evaluation index system established. The result shows that the damage degree of the drought of Hu Man reservoir can be reflected from different risk angles, and there exist some other hidden dangers in its man- agement. The research lays a foundation for carrying out the water resources planning and the water system risk management of the area.