中文摘要：

准确、可靠地模拟和预测煤矿区土地利用结构的变化,是矿区制定土地利用规划、土地复垦措施的重要依据。考虑到元胞自动机模型（CA）在土地利用结构变化模拟和预测方面的优越性能,将CA模型引入了矿区土地利用结构变化的模拟和预测。但矿区在不同的发展阶段,土地利用类型之间的转换具有不同方式,使得土地利用结构的演化存在阶段性的特点。因而利用CA模型对矿区的土地利用变化进行模拟和预测,就要求在不同阶段使用不同的转换规则,而传统CA模型难以满足这样的要求。本文基于矿区生命周期理论,改进了传统CA模型,通过控制变量的引入,实现了元胞转换规则的动态获取和应用。为了验证模型的有效性,以潞安矿区为研究区域,常村矿为研究对象,利用改进的模型对常村矿的土地利用空间结构进行了成熟期和衰退期的预测。通过和传统CA模型预测结果的比较,表明该模型的预测结果和矿区的不同阶段的土地利用演化特点比较吻合。因此该模型能够提高矿区土地利用结构演变模拟和预测的精度,是有效可行的方法。

英文摘要：

It is very important to obtain accurate land use changes data in coal mine area for making land use planning and land reclamation policy.The traits of CA（Cellular automata）such as strong complicated computing capability,inherent parallel computing capability,highly dynamic characteristic and spatial concept,etc.,have made it very strong on spatial-temporal evolution modeling of the complex system.CA is applied to simulate and predict land use spatial structural evolution in mine area because of its characteristics.But it is very different for land use changes in coal mine area in terms of urban growth.Coal area growth can be divided into four stages,whose evolution rules are different from other areas.Traditional CA model cannot satisfy this demand because of its static transition rules.In view of different characteristics of land use changes in every stage of coal mine,an improved CA model based on the lifecycle theory for coal mine area is proposed to simulate and predict the changes of land use in mine area.This improved model allows the users to select appreciate transition rules according to stages.To test the efficiency of the model,the Changcun coal mine in Lu＇an mine area is chosen as a study area.By collecting remote images and other data,considering the characteristics of the according stages in Wuyang and Shihejie coal mine,the model is used to simulate and predict the land utilization evolution of mature period and declining period in Changcun mine area.It is demonstrated by the actual case that the model is both feasible and effective,thus its predicted results can be taken as accurate and reliable data for the land use plan of mine area.