中文摘要：

水上交通安全的宏观特征描述一直被海运界关注,而传统的综合安全指数法以确定的数值表示水上交通安全整体水平,无法体现风险的不确定性和随机性.对此,引入仿真方法,提出基于蒙特卡洛仿真的水上交通安全评价方法,建立改进综合安全指数模型,通过风险概率分布的形式表示特定时间或特定空间范围内的水上交通安全状况.实例应用表明：改进综合安全指数法能科学地体现安全水平的实际变化情况,灵敏性高,融合了安全评价中的不确定性和随机性信息.

英文摘要：

Macroscopic character description of waterway transportation safety has always been focused on by the maritime industry. Traditional comprehensive index method uses certain definite value to represent the degree of safety, so the uncertainty and randomness of risk cannot be well embodied. Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to improve traditional safety assessment in this paper. Risk probability distribution is used to indicate the safety situation of waterway transportation for particular period of time. It is indicated that the real situation of safety levels can be described better by improved method.