中文摘要：

利用系统动力学理论构建了车辆追尾事故的仿真分析模型．该模型充分考虑了驾驶员的信息处理过程，反映了从感知信息到反应动作的时间延迟，跟驰车辆可以根据前车车速变化、自身的期望车距对自身车速和车距进行调整，利用前后两车车速比、实际车距与安全车距比计算追尾事故发生风险。最后以驾驶员感知反应时间为例，对不同感知反应时间下的追尾事故风险进行了仿真分析。该模型提供了一种道路交通事故致因的机理分析方法。

英文摘要：

System Dynamics theory was used to propose a model for analyzing risk level of rear-end accident occurrence. Detailed driver＇s perception-reaction process was involved in the model, and the delay from perception to reaction was represented. The following vehicle adjusted its speed and the separation distance based on the change of leading vehicle speed and its desired separation distance. The ratio of leading vehicle speed to following vehicle speed and the ratio of actual separation distance to safety separation distance were used to evaluate the risk level of rear-end accident occurrence. At last, driver＇s perception reaction time was taken as an example, and the risk level of rear-end accident with different perception reaction time was simulated and analyzed. The proposed model can be used to analyze traffic accident causation mechanism.