中文摘要：

“京都议定书”第一阶段的目标是发达国家主动减排温室气体，但通过对主要发达国家2004年与1990年温室气体排放水平的比较，发现发达国家并没有履行“京都议定书”的承诺，而发展中国家温室气体排放量在同期急剧增加，全球气候环境形势日益严峻。数据分析表明，世界经济的发展是导致温室气体排放量增加的格兰杰原因。在当今各国政府主要致力于各国经济发展的大背景下，要想达成一个有约束力的国际协议，以实现温室气体排放总量下降，达成UNDP的21世纪“碳预算”环境目标相当困难。

英文摘要：

The first-stage target of The Kyoto Protocol is that the developed countries should decrease their greenhouse gas discharging, but we can see that they have fulfill their commitment required by the protocol by comparing the greenhouse gas discharging levels of the main developed countries between 2004 and 1990. At the same time, the greenhouse gas discharging of developing countries increased rapidly, so glob- al climate environment circumstance is severe. Data analysis shows that the development of world economy is Granger＇ cause of greenhouse gas increasing. It is very difficult to reach the UNDP environment target of carbon budget for the 21st century under the macro-background under which every country in the world makes great efforts on economic growth nowadays.