中文摘要：

基于交易量与收盘价，设计了一种识别反转点的双极模型。以万科 A 股票3年的数据对双极模型进行投资模拟，得到在不同参数组合下的每次买卖投资收益，计算出年均收益率，再由 EGARCH 模型计算出每次投资的日VaR 值和总风险，作出不同参数组合下的收益率和风险散点图及有效边界图。结合不同投资者对风险喜好的无差异曲线，得到对应的最优参数组合，从而为不同类型的投资者提供投资策略。

英文摘要：

Based on the volume and price,this paper designs Bipolar mode to identify reversal point, using Vanke A stock of three year stock data to investment simulation,calculating the investment returns for each sale under different P and Q combination,and get the annual average rate of return,based on the EGARCH model,get the daily VaR for each investment and the total risk.Make to scatter the revenues and risks and the efficient frontier under different parameter combinations,using indifference curve to different investor＇s risk preference,the different types of investors can find the best optimal parameter combination and provide investment strategies for them.