中文摘要：

针对水电站水库群短期优化调度中的流量传播问题,借助泛函分析的思想和大数据分析的新思路,将水流滞时问题设想为黑箱子模型,基于实测的水电站水库群上下游的出入库流量资料,利用空间映射的原理推求出上下游水库的出入库流量间的线性映射关系。以此为基础,构建考虑水流滞时的梯级水库群短期优化调度模型,并给出了模型的求解方法。最后,将本文结果与采用固定滞时处理方法及实际运行情况进行对比,结果表明该模型简单实用,适用性强,对制定梯级水库群短期优化调度计划具有重要意义。

英文摘要：

Aimed at flow propagation in short-term optimal operation of cascade reservoirs, a flow hysteresis problem is considered using a black box model by the theory of functional analysis and a new thought of big data analysis. A relevant linear mapping relationship between the reservoir inflow and outflow is constructed by the space mapping principle, using the measured data of inflow and outflow discharges of the cascade hydropower plant reservoirs. Then, a short-term optimal operation model considering flow delay time is developed and a method of its calculation is given. Finally, an analysis is presented comparing our calculations with the method of fixed hysteresis time and the real operation case. Results show that this model is simple and practical for a wide range of application to short-term optimal operation of cascade reservoirs.