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中文摘要：
为了更好的研究径流预报误差的分布规律,应用最大熵原理,建立径流预报误差分布的最大熵模型;以官地水库径流预报系列为例,计算其不同预见期的径流预报误差概率密度函数及分布曲线,将该分布曲线与理论正态分布曲线和样本直方图进行对比,结果表明最大熵法求得的误差分布能更好地描述径流预报误差的分布特性。考虑流域径流年内的丰枯变化,以枯水期、汛期和过渡期对径流系列进行划分,分别分析各个时期的误差分布规律,并给出预报误差在不同置信区间下的置信度,从而更好地掌握径流预报误差的分布规律,为提高径流预报精度提供一条新途径。
英文摘要：
To deeply study the distribution law of runoff forecast error, the maximum entropy principle is applied and the maximum entropy model for the distribution of runoff prediction error is established in this paper. The authors use the runoff forecast series in Guandi Reservoir as an example and calculate the probability density function and distribution curve of the runoff forecast error for different forecasting periods. The distribution curves are compared with the theoretical normal distribution curves and the histogram of the samples. The results show that the distribution characteristics of the error distribution calculated by the maximum entropy method can describe the runoff forecasting error better. Considering the change of runoff years, the runoff series are divided into droughts, flood and transition seasons. The error distribution rule of each period is analyzed, and the confidence of forecasting error at different confidence interval offered, thus mastering the distribution rule of runoff forecasting error better and providing a new way to improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting.
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