中国作为碳排放大国,如何实现碳减排成为各界关注的焦点。采用2000-2013年省级面板数据,通过中介效应法分析环境规制对碳排放的作用路径,得出环境规制对碳排放不仅存在直接作用效应,还会通过产业结构调整这一路径间接地影响碳排放。在此基础上,采用面板门槛回归模型,实证分析环境规制下产业结构调整对碳排放作用效应的区域异质性以及地方政府晋升锦标赛对产业结构调整的碳减排效应影响。结果表明:环境规制水平越高的地区,产业结构调整的碳减排效应越显著;以地区经济发展水平作为门槛,得到环境规制对产业结构的调整效应与碳排放量呈倒“U”型;以FDI作为门槛,得到环境规制对产业结构的调整效应与碳排放量呈“N”型。据此对我国利用环境规制实现碳减排提出了针对性的对策建议。
This paper firstly constructs the panel data of China's 29 provinces between 2000 and 2013 to empirically analyze the paths of environmental regulation on China's carbon emissions with mediating effect method, then investigates the threshold effects of environmental regulation, economic development level and FDI on emission reduction effect of industrial restructuring. The main results are as follows: (1) Environmental regulation will not only have a direct impact on carbon emissions, but also exerts an indirect impact by transmission channels of industrial structure; (2) The higher the level of environmental regulation, the more significant emission reduction effect of industrial restructuring; (3) The local governmental competitions have dual threshold effect on emission reduction: From the perspective of economic development level, the emission reduction effect of industrial restructuring manifests inverted U-shaped curve; From the perspective of FDI, the effect behaves N-shape. At last, this paper raises the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions